The Military Manpower Burden and the Estimation of Soviet Force Size
Abstract
This paper compares demographic data and information on the conscription and manpower management institutions of the Soviet military to estimates of Soviet military manpower levels. The paper examines the apparent paradox of increasing force size at a time of declining draft-age cohorts. Three estimates of Soviet force size are examined. The lowest of these three series is used in an exercise to fit the estimates to the other information presented. As a general principle, when alternative assumptions are available, those that are most conservative, in the sense of being least restrictive to Soviet interests, are used. Even so, the demographic and other data suggest the current estimates of Soviet force size may be subject to overestimation. Keywords: USSR; Military force levels: Manpower/estimates; Demography/data acquisition; Foreign military forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1989
- Accession Number
- ADA228287
Entities
People
- Steven W. Popper
Organizations
- RAND Corporation