The Military Manpower Burden and the Estimation of Soviet Force Size

Abstract

This paper compares demographic data and information on the conscription and manpower management institutions of the Soviet military to estimates of Soviet military manpower levels. The paper examines the apparent paradox of increasing force size at a time of declining draft-age cohorts. Three estimates of Soviet force size are examined. The lowest of these three series is used in an exercise to fit the estimates to the other information presented. As a general principle, when alternative assumptions are available, those that are most conservative, in the sense of being least restrictive to Soviet interests, are used. Even so, the demographic and other data suggest the current estimates of Soviet force size may be subject to overestimation. Keywords: USSR; Military force levels: Manpower/estimates; Demography/data acquisition; Foreign military forces.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA228287

Entities

People

  • Steven W. Popper

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Census
  • Civil Defense
  • Corporations
  • Demography
  • Department Of Defense
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Force Structure
  • Military Force Levels
  • Military Personnel
  • Personnel Management
  • Procurement
  • Recruits
  • Standards
  • Students
  • Ussr
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP).
  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Regression Analysis.