Edward E. Azar's Early Warning Model - Does It Work

Abstract

This research focused on whether Edward E. Azar's Conflict Prediction Model could accurately predict the start of the Iran-Iraq War in September 1980 and/or the start of the Falkland Island War between Argentina and Great Britain in April 1982. The research takes 24 months of data before the start of the two wars and separates the data into two 12 month segments. The first 12 months of data was scaled according to Azar's 13-Point Intensity Scale and input into the computer statistical program statistix to try to produce constants that could be used on the second 12 months of data to try to predict the start of the two wars. The database used was the United States Naval Academy's Worldwide Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) data. The data was transformed from the WEIS scale into the Azar scale and cross-referenced for consistency.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1990
Accession Number
ADA229248

Entities

People

  • Donald E. Childre Jr.

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Expert Systems
  • Falkland Islands
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • International Law
  • International Relations
  • Iran Iraq War
  • Iraqi-War
  • Political Science
  • Students
  • United States Naval Academy
  • War

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Electrochemical Engineering/ Fuel Cell Technologies
  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies