Using Simulation to Evaluate the Safety of Proposed ATC Operations and Procedures
Abstract
This report addresses some of the issues that arise when simulation is used to evaluate capacity-enhancing air traffic control (ATC) system changes that may also affect aviation safety. It examines the limitations of different approaches to the measurement and prediction of safety. A safety standard is proposed that is not based on meeting a predetermined or absolute criterion, but on the ability to demonstrate that the modified system is as safe as the present one -- assuming the present system is considered safe. If the intent of change is to improve system safety rather than to increase capacity, this approach would require showing significantly safer operations vis-a-vis the present standard and, perhaps, no loss of capacity. This approach is based on the concept of ATC simulation as a controlled experiment. It provides a defense against having results contaminated by a lack of complete realism in the simulation, by a paucity of hard data on the occurrence of system errors, and the by the difficulty of setting a standard for an acceptable probability of serious events. (KR)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA229686
Entities
People
- Lee E. Paul
Organizations
- Federal Aviation Administration