A Theory of Diagnostic Inference: Contract Final Report
Abstract
The central theme underlying this work is that complex judgments and choices result from simple psychological processes that interact with highly variable and complex environments. Thus, the research has been aimed at identifying such processes, describing them by parsimonious mathematical models, and testing their implications in experimental tasks. Three lines of research are described. These involve investigations concerning choice under conditions of risk, ambiguity, and ignorance; belief updating; and the effects of exactingness and incentives on the learning of repetitive decision making tasks. (By exactingness is meant the extent of the investigations follows a similar format: statement of issues motivating the research, specification of the model and psychological principles underlying the theoretical approach adopted, and summary of the main experimental results.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA230703
Entities
People
- Robin M. Hogarth
Organizations
- University of Chicago