My Intuition Works, So Why Mess with This Decision Analysis Stuff

Abstract

This report describes possible shortcomings of unaided decision making and benefits of decision analysis. The premise of this report is that unaided decision making only works for simple decisions, but rarely suffices for complicated decision problems. Unaided decision making is a holistic approach using the decision maker's intuition and heuristics. Unaided decision making can result in biases and systematic errors. Decision analysis is a systematic process with the objective to provide insight and aid a decision maker in making better decisions by being consistent and logical. Decision analysis is a modelling process that quantifies uncertain information using probability theory and risk using utility theory. Decision analysis involves decomposing the decision problem into manageable pieces and then recombining the information as the expectation of probabilities and utilities.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1990
Accession Number
ADA230708

Entities

People

  • Jeffrey S. Stonebraker

Organizations

  • United States Air Force Academy

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Colorado
  • Decision Theory
  • Errors
  • Human Behavior
  • Information Processing
  • Judgment
  • Operations Research
  • Psychological Phenomena And Processes
  • Psychology
  • United States
  • United States Air Force Academy

Readers

  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.