Application of Influence Diagrams in Identifying Soviet Satellite Missions

Abstract

This thesis investigates the feasibility of applying influence diagrams to capture expert knowledge and incorporate decision theory to construct a Soviet satellite mission prediction model. Before a Soviet launch occurs, formulations of the model's prior probability distribution allows the input of expert knowledge and any available information. As the predictive variables of the model become known, the information is used to successively refine the estimate of the probable mission, thereby, reducing the uncertainty in the model. Discretizing is used to approximate continuous variables as discrete variables which successfully allows the combination of both variable types in a single influence diagram model. Results of testing and recommendations for continued research are presented.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1990
Accession Number
ADA230752

Entities

People

  • Cary C. Chun

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Apogees
  • Artificial Satellites
  • Databases
  • Geography
  • Geosynchronous Orbits
  • Navigation Satellites
  • Payload
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Reconnaissance Satellites
  • Satellite Buses
  • Satellite Orbits
  • Space Objects
  • Space Systems
  • Space Transportation
  • Spacecraft
  • Spacecraft Orbits

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Space Exploration and Orbital Mechanics.
  • Statistical inference.

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Satellites