MISAWA Snow Accumulation Study
Abstract
This report describes the development of statistically significant thresholds of 11 atmospheric variables for forecasting snow at Misawa Air Base, Japan. The 11 variables were: gradient-level temperature and dew-point atmospheric temperature, 850-mb temperature, 700-mb temperature, thickness for five layers between 1,000 feet AGL and 500 mb, gradient wind direction, and gradient wind velocity. USAFETAC did simple correlations of each variable with observed 6-hour snowfall amounts to develop a linear regression equation that would predict 6-hourly snowfall amounts. Since the linear regression did not show skill, the study was expanded to develop a decision tree for making a 'yes' or 'no' snow determination. The USAFETAC-developed decision tree scored well using dependent data, but not very well on independent data; it lost to persistence. USAFETAC does not recommend either technique for use in operational forecasting, but suggests further development and evaluation of the decision tree over a longer period of record.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1991
- Accession Number
- ADA233113
Entities
People
- William R. Schaub Jr.
Organizations
- Air Force Technical Applications Center