Forecasting Digital Microcircuit Obsolescence

Abstract

This report documents a procedure for forecasting digital microcircuit Obsolescence at the Defense Electronics Supply Center, Dayton, OH. Obsolescence is caused by rapid advancement in digital technology and decrease in commercial demand while military demand still continues. In logistics parlance, parts obsolescence is known as a Diminishing Manufacturing Source (DMS) problem. Continued supply of an obsolete DMS item is assured via substitution, alternate sourcing or a one time buy equal to the lifetime requirements of the item. Emulation is a recent alternative which explores the possibility of replacing obsolete digital microcircuits with state of the art devices which can be manufactured and supplied on demand. The report recommends use of a statistical model which forecasts DMS items from a population of presently non-DMS items belonging to obsolete digital microcircuit technologies. The items forecast by the model should be evaluated for their emulation potential.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1991
Accession Number
ADA234573

Entities

People

  • Nandakumar M. Balwally

Organizations

  • Defense Logistics Agency

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Circuits
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • Economic Analysis
  • Electronics
  • Inventory Control
  • Logistics
  • Manufacturing
  • Manufacturing Engineering
  • Microcircuits
  • Microelectronics
  • Operations Research
  • Replenishment

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Naval Mine Countermeasure Systems Development.

Technology Areas

  • Microelectronics