The Development of an Officer Training School Board Score Prediction Method Using a Multi-Board Approach
Abstract
One phase in the Officer Training School (OTS) selection process is meeting a selection board. Recruiting Services (HQ ATC/RS) currently uses a regression model (based on data from one board) to evenly distribute 'quality' among the different panels in the selection boards. HQ ATC/RS wanted a method of predicting board scores based on data from multiple boards. This study used the results from eighteen boards and 9215 applicants to develop and validate a multi-board regression model for each of five application categories. Comparisons between the two models showed mixed results. In two categories, non- rated operations and technical, the single-board model explained a higher proportion of the total variance. However, in the other three categories, the multi-board model explained significantly more of the total variance. In all but one category, the single-board model and lower prediction errors. Overall, the multi-board model was able to predict board scores well enough to sort the records so that each panel would get approximately the same quality distribution of records. A discriminant analysis was also performed using the top 33% of the board scores to represent the records that would be selected. The results showed that the model could not successfully identify the records that would be selected.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1991
- Accession Number
- ADA238466
Entities
People
- Sandra C. Niemi
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology