Technical Notes on Risk and Uncertainty in Early Comparability Analysis.
Abstract
In the early phases of the materiel acquisition process, Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) may be the only source for data on a conceptual weapon system. In these early phases, the Early Comparability Analysis (ECA) methodology provides a tool for identifying the Manpower, Personnel, and Training (MPT) resource intensive tasks (e.g., the high drivers) on currently fielded systems that the conceptual system will replace. Various documents related to Manpower and Personnel Integration (MANPRINT) and the Concept Formulation Process (CFP) discuss risk and uncertainty. By expanding these concepts and using some theoretical considerations, the ECA method can be extended to provide a probabilistic estimate of the uncertainty of the SMEs opinion and the risk of the proposed system. The process which determines the risk and uncertainty probabilities can then be worked backward to determine the high drivers as well as the source for risk and uncertainty. Hypothetical data from a very small sample of SMEs is used to illustrate the risk/uncertainty process. The method incorporates a consideration for importance values or weights in the determination of risk/uncertainty values probabilities.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 31, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA239011
Entities
People
- Gerald A. Klopp