Development of a Numerical Scheme to Predict Geomagnetic Storms after Intense Solar Events and Geomagnetic Activity 27 Days in Advance.
Abstract
The modern geomagnetic storm prediction scheme should be based on a numerical simulation method, rather than on a statistical result. Furthermore, the scheme should be able to predict the geomagnetic storm indices, such as the Dst and AE indices, as a function of time. By recognizing that geomagnetic storms are powered by the solar wind-magnetosphere generator and that its power is given in terms of the solar wind speed, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude and polar angle, we have made a major advance in predicting both flare-induced storms and recurrent storms. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the prediction scheme can be calibrated using the interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observation, when the solar disturbance advances about half-way to the earth. It is shown, however, that we are still far from a reliable prediction scheme. The prediction of the IMF polar angle requires future advance in understanding characteristics of magnetic clouds.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1991
- Accession Number
- ADA240802
Entities
People
- Li-her Lee
- S.-i. Akasofu
Organizations
- University of Alaska Fairbanks