Higher Order Probabilities

Abstract

A number of writers have supposed that for the full specification of belief, higher order probabilities are required. Some have even supposed that here may be an unending sequence of higher order probabilities of probabilities of probabilities... In the present paper we show that higher order probabilities can always be replaced by the marginal distributions of joint probability distribution. We consider both the case in which higher order probabilities are of the same sort as lower order probabilities and that in which higher order probabilities are construed as frequencies and higher order probabilities are construed as subjective degrees of belief. In neither case do higher order probabilities appear to offer any advantages, either conceptually or computationally.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1988
Accession Number
ADA250537

Entities

People

  • Henry Kyburg Jr.

Organizations

  • University of Rochester

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Artificial Intelligence Computing
  • Cognition
  • Computing-Related Activities
  • Convex Sets
  • Data Fusion
  • Frequency
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Numbers
  • Philosophy
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Statistical Distributions
  • Uncertainty
  • Universities

Readers

  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design