Familiar Problems in Probabilistic Causal Reasoning

Abstract

In most work on causal reasoning, an agent's knowledge assigns one of three values to domain facts: yes, no, or maybe. These values are not sufficient, however, to represent the statistical information available in many interesting domains (arguably including most realistic domains). Thus some recent approaches to causal reasoning have concentrated on representation and inference with probabilistic degrees of belief (DK88, Han88, SH88). We have found that proabilistic approaches to causality suffer from some of the same hard problems as traditional approaches. In particular the frame and qualification problems arise in subtle ways, and it is important to realize when such profound representational problems exit. The problems implicitly motivate the representational primitives of Dean and Kanazawa's approach, but we find fault with their choice of primitives. In this paper, we first describe the persistence and qualification problems in a probabilistic setting, then explain and criticize Dean and Kanazawa's solutions from a more traditional non-probabilistic causal framework.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1989
Accession Number
ADA250604

Entities

People

  • Jay Weber

Organizations

  • University of Rochester

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DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Causal Reasoning
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Data Fusion
  • Models
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Qualifications
  • Quantum Mechanics
  • Reasoning
  • Universities

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms