Risk Analysis for Aging Aircraft Fleets. Volume 1: Analysis
Abstract
This report presents a detailed description of the computer programs Probability of Fracture (PROF), which was written to quantify structural risks associated with the timing of inspection, replacement, and retirement decisions for aging fleets of aircraft. The programmed methodology calculates the history of a growing population of metallic fatigue cracks in zones of equivalent stress experience in the fleet. It accounts for inspection uncertainty and the repair of cracks that are detected. The risk assessment addresses both safety and durability. Safety is quantified in terms of the probability of a fracture resulting from the maximum load in a flight exceeding the critical stress intensity factor. Durability is quantified in terms of the expected number and sizes of the cracks to be detected and repaired at each inspection/maintenance cycle and the expected cost of these repairs. The input to the program is obtainable from existing damage tolerance analyses, individual aircraft tracking histories, loads/environment spectra surveys and maintenance data files. Aging Aircraft, Aircraft Structures, Risk Analysis, Reliability.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1991
- Accession Number
- ADA252000
Entities
People
- Alan P. Berens
- Donald A. Skinn
- Peter W. Hovey
Organizations
- University of Dayton