A Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Technical Risk

Abstract

This thesis examines the problems affecting the quantitative assessment of technical risk in Department of Defense major weapon systems acquisition. A decision Theory approach is used. Commercial techniques and current DoD methods of technical risk assessment are investigated. TASCFORM TM technology values are used in a linear regression model to characterize the growth of technology over time. The model residuals provide a probability distribution for estimating the likelihood of achieving a specified level of technical performance. The benefit of a utility function describing technical risk perceptions is considered. The Expanded Pearson-Tukey method of describing risk is also investigated. Continued research into technology valuation techniques is recommended. A test case application of the Expanded Pearson-Tukey method is also recommended, to determine its ability to provide reliable and timely quantitative technical risk information. Weapon System Acquisition, Decision Theory, Risk Assessment, Technical Risk, Utility Theory.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1992
Accession Number
ADA255130

Entities

People

  • William G. Harrison Jr.

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Aerial Warfare
  • Aircraft Industry
  • Airframes
  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Business Administration
  • Classification
  • Decision Theory
  • Department Of Defense
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • Military Acquisition
  • Probability Distributions
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis