Multivariate Calibration and Yield Estimation

Abstract

Calibration of the linear magnitude-yield relation and estimation of yields from subsequent vector magnitudes is studied from the classical and Bayesian points of view. Calibration regressions are developed using (1) sampled magnitude-yield pairs, (2) sampled pairs and prior information and (3) sampled magnitudes and CORRTEX measurements. Yield estimates and confidence intervals are derived under all three assumptions using the predictive distribution of the observed magnitude. Prior information, such as might be provided by expert panels, is incorporated through distributional assumptions made on the slope- intercept vectors and the yield-adjusted magnitude covariance matrix. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is derived for the case where CORRTEX yields are available. All methods are illustrated on a population of 16 magnitude pairs (m sub b, L sub g) and associated announced yields from Semipalatinsk.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 31, 1992
Accession Number
ADA257767

Entities

People

  • Robert H. Shumway

Organizations

  • University of California

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bayesian Networks
  • Calibration
  • Covariance
  • Data Science
  • Earth Sciences
  • Geography
  • Geology
  • Geophysics
  • Information Science
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Planetary Sciences
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Surveys

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.
  • Seismology

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms