Avoiding Surprise: The Role of Intelligence Collection and Analysis at the Operational Level of War
Abstract
This monograph discusses whether U. S. Army operational commanders are still susceptible to surprise. The principle of surprise remains an important consideration for campaign planners. Operations Just Cause and Desert Storm relied heavily on surprise to establish the conditions for success. Yet, recent advances in intelligence technologies may have rendered surprise obsolete. Many believe that 'perfect intelligence.' seemingly assured by sophisticated surveillance and reconnaissance systems, makes surprise unlikely during modern warfare. The large scale of modern operations and 'near-real-time' information processing also makes surprise questionable. In short, advanced intelligence and command and control capabilities, combined with Army doctrinal emphasis on predictive intelligence, could lead campaign planners to disregard enemy efforts to achieve operational surprise. The monograph first explains the theoretical causes of surprise. Based on these considerations, a paradigm is provided to examine the causes of operational surprise. Surprise, Yom Kippur War, Battle of the bulge, EACIC, Operational level surprise, Intelligence anlaysis.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 28, 1992
- Accession Number
- ADA258103
Entities
People
- Brian A. Keller
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College