Including Maximum Sustained Wind Speed in a Time Series Model to Forecast Hurricane Movement
Abstract
Techniques for applying time series fundamentals to forecasting hurricane movement are thoroughly examined in this research. The objectives are: (1) to modify Dr. Thomas Curry's threshold autoregressive time series model to improve its ability to forecast hurricane movement, (2) to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed for a hurricane, and (3) to identify if wind speed should be included as an explanatory variable to aid in forecasting hurricane movement. Eleven different models to predict the latitude, longitude and maximum sustained wind speed are compared and contrasted with Curry's bivariate time series model. The results showed the modifications allow significant forecasting improvement to Curry's model in the 6-, 12-, 24-, 48- and 72-hour forecasts. The model recommended by this research shows a significant improvement in mean and variance of the overall forecast errors.... Hurricane forecasting, Times series.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1993
- Accession Number
- ADA262510
Entities
People
- Timothy B. Mott
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology