Markov Chains for Random Urinalysis 1: Age-Test Model

Abstract

Since any drug abuse impacts readiness, health, and safety, continuing evaluation and improvement of the Navy's program is required. One method of improving the Navy's program is to develop and analyze alternative testing strategies. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) proposed a urinalysis testing strategy based on time since last test. That is, the probability of a person being tested depends on the amount of time since the person was last tested. Southern California Edison (SCE) has implemented a variation of the NRC proposal. Urinalysis testing strategies based on time since last test are defined by a high testing rate for personnel not yet tested in a given time period and a low testing rate for previously tested personnel with negative results in a given time period. The probability distribution of random urinalysis tests is modeled under a general class of age-test urinalysis strategies. Age-test is a particular Markov chain with the probability of being tested defined as a function of time since last test. The NRC proposal, the SCE program, and current Navy practice can all be modeled as age-test Markov chains. Various age-test strategies are analyzed.... Probability, Random urinalysis, Detection, Drug abuse.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA263274

Entities

People

  • Douglas J. Hentschel
  • James P. Boyle
  • Theodore J. Thompson

Organizations

  • Bureau of Naval Personnel

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • California
  • Detection
  • Drug Abuse
  • Drug Users
  • Markov Chains
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Personnel
  • Navy
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Statistical Sampling
  • Steady State
  • Stochastic Processes
  • United States
  • Urinalysis

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