Thunderstorm Forecast Study for Eglin AFB, FL

Abstract

This report describes the evaluation of an empirical technique (WINNDEX) for predicting air-mass thunderstorms at Eglin AFB, FL. Results showed that the WINNDEX objective forecast technique had a Heidke skill score of .18 in predicting thunderstorm activity on the Eglin Range complex. A discriminant analysis model was developed that improved this skill to .32 in predicting the occurrence of thunderstorms during four 3-hour periods beginning at 1200Z. The study demonstrates the utility of USAFETAC's lightning database in developing and verifying a thunderstorm forecast model for remote locations.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA263423

Entities

People

  • Daniel Comell

Organizations

  • Air Force Technical Applications Center

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force Facilities
  • Air Masses
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Climatology
  • Data Sets
  • Databases
  • Detection
  • Dew Point
  • Discriminant Analysis
  • False Alarms
  • Lightning
  • Meteorology
  • Military Research
  • Thunderstorms
  • Verification
  • Warning Systems
  • Weather Forecasting

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation