Strategic Surprise and Intelligence--Towards a Clearer Understanding
Abstract
Current Army and Air Force doctrine concedes strategic surprise in the face of overhead surveillance. Has strategic surprise been eclipsed by the eye in the sky? This paper examines the nature, foundation and potential of strategic surprise. Further, it offers a military definition for the term 'surprise,' more relevant than the lexical one offered in Webster's Dictionary. Overall, there appears to be a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of strategic surprise in AFM 1-1 and FM-100. The weight of history seems to say that strategic surprise is not only possible, it is almost inevitable. Further, complacency about our ability to deny strategic surprise to our enemies is neither warranted by historical example or current technology. Contemporary historical examples are used to evaluate current thinking on strategic surprise. Conclusions resulting from this study are threefold: (1) Strategic surprise occurs in the face of sufficient and accurate intelligence data, not in the absence of it; (2) Surprise exploits the nature of man--his personality, idiosyncrasies, peculiarities, and weaknesses; (3) Intelligence networks themselves, serve as clogged conduits through which valuable information fails to flow at inopportune times. The nature of strategic surprise argues against any technology ever overcoming the complexity and unpredictability of man himself. A new evaluation of strategic surprise should be incorporated in operations doctrine and meaningful curriculum should be formulated for use in Professional Military Education programs. Strategic surprise.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 22, 1993
- Accession Number
- ADA264456
Entities
People
- Jeffrey C. O'leary
Organizations
- Naval War College