Markov Chains for Random Urinalysis II: Age-Test Model with Absorbing State

Abstract

This is the second of a series of papers on the use of Markov chains to model random urinalysis programs. Previous work introduced the age-test Markov chain. This chain was used to model random urinalysis strategies stratified by time since last tested. This paper extends the age-test model by including an absorbing state for detection of drug users. We quantify the extent to which age-test urinalysis strategies can be gamed by drug users. The theory and formula for calculating the distribution of time to absorption (e.g., detection of drug users), the mean time to absorption and the expected number of visits to intermediate states (e.g., number of tests) prior to detection are developed. This model is used to analyze three age-test strategies.... Drug urinalysis, Markov chains, Stratified random sampling, Age-test model.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA265557

Entities

People

  • Douglas J. Hentschel
  • James P. Boyle
  • Theodore J. Thompson

Organizations

  • Bureau of Naval Personnel

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Absorption
  • California
  • Change Detection
  • Detection
  • Drug Users
  • Markov Chains
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Personnel
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Sampling
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Statistical Sampling
  • Steady State
  • Stochastic Processes
  • United States
  • Urinalysis

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