The Accuracy of Intelligence Assessment: Bias, Perception, and Judgement in Analysis and Decision
Abstract
This paper examines bias, perception, a judgment in intelligence analysis and decision making. It asks if the accuracy of intelligence assessments can be improved. An answer is sought at fundamental levels of analysis, where biases influence observation, observations are mediated by preconception, and perceptions pass through the filter of critical judgment. Unintentional human errors in observing, perceiving, and judging are the central issues of this paper. Deliberate distortions of intelligence through political calculation or service parochialism are treated peripherally. A survey of literature leads to the conclusion that analytic bias is inevitable; that intelligence concepts are necessary and dangerous; and that uncertainty ensures a margin of error in assessment. Therefore, efforts to eliminate bias and increase the objectivity of intelligence officers are unproductive. Instead, efforts should focus on the suitability and adaptability of concepts. Intelligence officers can be encouraged to use concepts flexibly by exercising several qualities of critical judgment.... Intelligence, Misperception of Adversaries, Bias and Intelligence, Perception and Intelligence, Judgment and intelligence, Ethics and intelligence, Analysis and Decision
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 10, 1993
- Accession Number
- ADA266925
Entities
People
- Alexander P. Butterfield Jr
Organizations
- Naval War College