Assessing The Possible Return On Investment Resulting From Upgrading A System

Abstract

This thesis develops a decision aid to assist in assessing the cost effectiveness of upgrading a subsystem. The procedures developed in this thesis are to estimate the time of onset and the magnitude of the degradation of a subsystem and to estimate the best time to upgrade the subsystem. Two procedures are considered to estimate the time of onset of subsystem degradations and the magnitude of the degradation. One is maximum likelihood; the other is a Bayesian procedure. These estimates are then used in a cost model to estimate the cost of remaining with the current subsystem for the remaining planned lifetime of the system. A comparison of this cost with that of investing in the upgraded subsystem can be used to obtain a best time to invest in the upgraded subsystem. Procedures to assess the uncertainty of the cost advantage of upgrading the subsystem are also studied to give further information to the decision maker.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA267244

Entities

People

  • Chang Tun-jen

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computer Programs
  • Cost Effectiveness
  • Cost Models
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Economic Analysis
  • Investments
  • Mathematical Models
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Radar Transmitters
  • Random Variables
  • Standards
  • Transmitters

Readers

  • Aerospace Test and Evaluation
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference