A Handbook of Cost Risk Analysis Methods

Abstract

When estimating costs, interval estimates are more informative than simple point estimates. Interval estimates are sometime available using analytical methods. These methods may be either exact (for example, a sum of random variables) or approximate (for example, based on Taylor series). When analytical methods are not available, simulation may be used instead. This paper illustrates the application of both analytical and simulation methods to the three main types of cost analysis: cost-estimating relationships, work breakdown structures, and stochastic network models. In addition, the paper contains descriptions of some commercially-available software products that can be used to perform simulations for the types of cost-risk analysis described.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA267253

Entities

People

  • Matthew S Goldberg
  • Mitchell S. Robinson
  • Philip M. Lurie

Organizations

  • Institute for Defense Analyses

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Satellites
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Distribution Functions
  • Management Personnel
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management
  • Simulations
  • Spacecraft
  • Standards
  • Systems Management

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Calculus or Mathematical Analysis
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis