Paired Comparison Models with Time-Varying Parameters

Abstract

Paired comparison experiments involve comparisons among a set of objects, treatments, or competitors in blocks of size two to determine relative merits among the objects. Applications to tournament chess competition or team sports differ from the usual paired comparison framework in that competitors' abilities may change over time. A dynamic model is developed for the usual paired comparison experiment in which only a binary indicator of the preferred object is available (or trinary, if ties are allowed), and for alternative paired comparison experiments in which more information (perhaps the score) is available. Posterior distributions of the rating parameters and posterior prediction intervals for the results of future comparisons axe obtained using methods that are closely related to the Kalman filter. The methodology is applied to the analysis of professional football game outcomes and to chess tournament results from the 1988-1989 World Cup.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA272016

Entities

People

  • Mark E. Glickman

Organizations

  • Harvard University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computational Science
  • Data Mining
  • Data Science
  • Discrete Distribution
  • Equations Of State
  • Information Science
  • Knowledge Management
  • Mathematical Filters
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Normal Distribution
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Sampling
  • Statistical Algorithms

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Vision.
  • Psychometric Testing or Psychological Assessment.