A Manpower model and Structural Analysis for a Coast Guard Enlisted Rating
Abstract
The Coast Guard must maintain a balance of personnel inventories to billet requirements while providing adequate promotion opportunities. Future changes in billet requirements must be studied to see the effects they may have on the personnel system. This thesis presents a vacancy personnel model based on Markov theory to forecast future end of year inventories and personnel flows for a seven paygrade Coast Guard rating. The model uses historical data and user input to estimate certain model parameters and executes a five year forecast in a spreadsheet format. Certain real life constraints for promotions and recruitment are also incorporated into the model which is then solved in a manner to minimize end of year differences between personnel inventories and billet requirements. In addition, the model estimates, for each forecasted year, a mean Time in Service to Advancement (TISADV) for those promoted to each paygrade based on linear regression and/or weighted multiplier values. The model, called Coast Guard Rating Forecast Model, is tested for the Machinist Mate (MK) rating using 1984 - 1988 data and validated against 1989 - 1991 actual values. Finally, the model is used to forecast 1993 through 1997 inventories, personnel flows and TISADV values for the MK rating based on beginning of fiscal year 1993 information.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 23, 1993
- Accession Number
- ADA273426
Entities
People
- Mark J. Fiebrandt
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School