How Cognitive Dissonance Led to Strategic Surprise in the Persian Gulf War

Abstract

This study maintains strategic surprise occurred in two instances during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. First Saddam's invasion of Kuwait took the United States, and most of the world, by surprise. Next, the U.S. led coalition attacks strategically surprised Saddam and his forces. By claiming that strategic surprise took place during the Gulf War, this study contradicts Clausewitz and modern U.S. military doctrine. These sources both state strategic surprise rarely occurs because of the large size of armies. Yet, dispite the large forces in the Gulf War, strategic surprise did occur. As this study shows, strategic surprise occurred in the Gulf crisis due to cognitive dissonance. This condition causes an individual's mind to become out of tune with reality. During the Gulf War, cognitive dissonance tended to cause decision makers on both sides of the conflict to discount warning signs which indicated their respective plans were not working. By discounting these warning signs, Gulf War leaders failed to reassess their plans and make required adjustments. This failure created an environment in which strategic surprised occurred. Strategic surprise, Operational level planning.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 04, 1993
Accession Number
ADA273933

Entities

People

  • Kurtis D. Lohide

Organizations

  • United States Army Command and General Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Economic Sanctions
  • Governments
  • Intergovernmental Organizations
  • International Organizations
  • International Relations
  • Military History
  • Military Personnel
  • Military Science
  • Persian Gulf
  • Persian Gulf War
  • Southwest Asia
  • Treaties
  • United States
  • War
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Gulf War Illness and Chronic Multisymptom Illness in Veterans.
  • Military History of the United States in the 20th Century.
  • Systems Analysis and Design