Threat Theory: A Model for Forecasting the Threat Environment of the Future
Abstract
A new environment, a new paradigm faces United States policy and decision makers. The bipolar world of superpower control and confrontation has been replaced with an unipolar world lead by the United States. A rapid evolution is occurring. A multipolar world is developing composed nation states and non-nation states competing against each other and the United States to promote and protect their vital interests. This new environment confronts this nation with a growing number of unknowns and difficult choices. In such conditions, a logical assumption is that any nation state that can accurately forecast future trends, events, and likely threats will have a distinct advantage. The reality is that there are many pundits proposing a kaleidoscope of possible threats. There is no consistent methodology to identify those nation states and non-nation states that are and will evolve into threats. The lack of a viable forecast results in a fragile and ineffectual grand strategy. History is replete with examples of the penalties to nation states that fail to anticipate and correctly understand a new geopolitical environment. Threat forecasting, Campaign planning, Grand strategy, Military force structure, Force development.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 14, 1993
- Accession Number
- ADA274021
Entities
People
- Larry D. Bruns
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College