Simulation Approaches for Calculations in Directed Graphical Models

Abstract

In formulating models for a complex system graphical representation is an effective tool. When the components of the system are viewed as random variables, directed graphical models detail the nature of the dependence among them. Moreover, if for each variable the conditional distribution is provided according to the graph, the joint distribution is uniquely determined. Natural questions arise about the static behavior of the system under such specification as well as its response to information (observed levels of some of the variables). Answers to these questions require the ability to calculate arbitrary marginal and conditional distributions. In complex cases (high dimensional structures) such calculations require high dimensional integrations and/or summations. Most of the work to date has taken advantage of properties of directed graphs to facilitate exact calculations but is limited with regard to distributional assumptions and feasible system size. Monte Carlo methods for such calculations can accommodate much larger system size with arbitrary dependence structure and distributional forms yielding approximations which can be as accurate as desired. It is the objective of this paper to detail such methodology. An illustration is provided using a diagnostic system for congenital heart disease in neonates.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 12, 1993
Accession Number
ADA274825

Entities

People

  • Alan E. Gelfand
  • Constantin T. Yiannoutsos

Organizations

  • Stanford University

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computational Science
  • Computations
  • Data Science
  • Expert Systems
  • Heart Diseases
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Markov Chains
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Electromagnetic Wave Scattering and Antenna Radiation Engineering