Determining a Budget Profile from a Development Cost Estimate

Abstract

Often in developing budgets for programs with a development phase, analysts must determine the budget profile from a point estimate of the total development cost. Expenditures for Department of Defense (DoD) development programs, as recorded in Cost Performance Reports, are seen to fit a cumulative Rayleigh distribution reasonably well. Thus, given a point estimate of total development costs, a realistic expenditure profile can be determined using a Rayleigh model. Furthermore, these expenditures can be related to annual budget requirements through the DoD Comptroller's outlay rates. This paper describes a method for determining a budget profile from a point estimate of the total development cost.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA275864

Entities

People

  • David A. Lee
  • Mark A. Gallagher
  • Michael R. Hogue

Organizations

  • Office of the Secretary of Defense

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Acquisition
  • Air Force
  • Cost Analysis
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Department Of Defense
  • Equations
  • Linear Systems
  • Manpower Utilization
  • Military Acquisition
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Standards
  • Weapon Systems

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Public Financial Management and Budgeting