An Acquisition Process for the Management of Risks of Cost Overrun and Time Delay Associated with Software Development

Abstract

The ability to quantify risk is essential to the processes of budgeting and scheduling. During the process of hiring to complete specified tasks, customers must be able to verify contractor estimates and to make sound judgements on the risks of cost overruns and time delays. The following two questions are central to this paper: Do developers with little experience over- estimate or underestimate the complexity of the task because of their past experience, the assumption they make, the models they select, and how they define the model parameters? What are the sources of risk associated with project cost estimation? How can such risk be quantified? To address these questions, this paper proposes a systematic acquisition process that is aimed at assessing and managing the risks of cost overruns and time delays associated with software development. The proposed acquisition process, which is composed of four phases (listed below), is grounded on the following three basic premises: (a) any single-value estimate of cost or completion time is inadequate to capture and represent the variability and uncertainty associated with cost and schedule. Acquisition process, Risk, Cost overrun.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1993
Accession Number
ADA276466

Entities

People

  • Clyde Chittister
  • Yacov Y. Haimes

Organizations

  • Carnegie Mellon University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Human Systems
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Contractors
  • Contracts
  • Cost Estimates
  • Costs
  • Database Management Systems
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Employment
  • Engineering
  • Judgment
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Random Variables
  • Risk Analysis
  • Software Development

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Theoretical Analysis.