An Algorithm for Probabilistic, Totally-Ordered Temporal Projection

Abstract

Temporal projection, defined as the prediction of what might happen when a plan is executed, is an important component of many planning algorithms. To achieve efficiency, it is desirable for a projection to be a totally ordered event sequence. To cope with uncertainty, the events must be generated using probabilistic rules. We require a rule language that allows us to specify what can happen when an event occurs, as well as what events can occur when certain propositions are true. The language has a formal semantics, which allows us to prove that a set of rules has a unique model (if it is consistent). This language supports a Monte Carlo style of projection, in which event sequences are sampled randomly using the probabilities in the rules. The output of the projector is a timeline that allows a planning algorithm to test the truth of propositions at arbitrary points. The algorithms for building and retrieving from the timeline can be shown to be correct. Experiments show that for a typical theory, the time to build a timeline is a quadratic function of the number of events in the timeline.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 31, 1994
Accession Number
ADA277341

Entities

People

  • Drew McDermott

Organizations

  • Yale University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Cognitive Science
  • Computational Science
  • Computations
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Language
  • Probabilistic Models
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Real Numbers
  • Reasoning
  • Stochastic Processes

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Computational Linguistics
  • Educational Psychology
  • Emergency Management and Homeland Security.