A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

Abstract

This report describes a simple economic model of the cocaine trade. The purpose of the model is to represent the fundamental economic relations that determine the size of the cocaine trade, and to simulate the effects on the trade of policy initiatives or other changes in the surrounding environment. The report begins by describing the policy setting and the variety of programs that have been used, or advocated, to control drug production overseas. It then presents a description of the structure of the model in equation form and estimates of the current state of the cocaine market that are used to parameterize the model. The results of a set of simulations of the model are then presented, and they lead to the following conclusions. 'Crop substitution' programs will have a negligible impact on the world cocaine market. As desirable for other reasons as improving economic conditions in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia may be, those improvements will not lower cocaine supply.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1994
Accession Number
ADA282313

Entities

People

  • Kevin J. Riley
  • Michael Kennedy
  • Peter Reuter

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Commerce
  • Conversion Ratio
  • Drug Abuse
  • Economic Development
  • Economic Models
  • Employment
  • Environment
  • Foreign Relations
  • Governments
  • Investments
  • Law
  • Law Enforcement
  • Money
  • National Security
  • Public Policy
  • Security
  • Standards

Readers

  • Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse Science in Autism Spectrum Disorders.
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Economics