The Revolution in Military Affairs and Conflict Short of War
Abstract
Many American strategic thinkers believe that we are in the beginning stages of a historical revolution in military affairs (RMA). This will not only change the nature of warfare, but also alter the global geopolitical balance. To date, most attention has fallen on the opportunities provided by the RMA rather than its risks, costs, and unintended consequences. In the arena of conflict short of war, these risks, costs, and unintended consequences may outweight the potential benefits. The Cold War notion of conflict short of war is obsolete. Politically and militarily, the Third World of the future will be full of danger. The future will most likely be dominated by peace enforcement in failed states, new forms of insurgency and terrorism, and 'gray area phenomena.' Many if not most Third World states will fragment into smaller units. Ungovernability and instability will be the norm with power dispersed among warlords, primal militias, and well-organized politico-criminal organizations. U.S. policy in the Third World is likely to be more selective and the U.S. homeland may no longer provide sanctuary. Renewed external support will restore the lagging proficiency of insurgents and terrorists. Emerging technology will have less impact on conflict short of war than on conventional, combined-arms warfare. It will, however, have some role.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 25, 1994
- Accession Number
- ADA283836
Entities
People
- James Kievit
- Steven Metz
Organizations
- United States Army War College