Reducing the Confirmation Bias in an Evolving Situation.

Abstract

This report presents the results of Phase 2 research on decision making in an evolving situation. As in Phase 1, the problem context was situation assessment by trained Army intelligence analysts working in pairs. Participants were given an initial battlefield scenario and asked to determine the enemy's most likely avenue of approach and to give their level of confidence; subsequently they were asked to reconsider their decisions after receiving each of three updated intelligence reports that contained some items that confirmed and some that did not confirm their early hypothesis. Finally, the participants were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypotheses. (AN)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA293570

Entities

People

  • F. F. Marvin
  • Martin A. Tolcott

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analysts
  • Army Intelligence
  • Battlefields
  • Cognition
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Hypotheses
  • Instructions
  • Instructors
  • Intelligence Analysis
  • Intelligence Analysts
  • Judgment
  • Military Intelligence
  • Psychology
  • Social Sciences
  • Students
  • Training

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Nuclear Non-Proliferation and International Security
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.