Financial Ratio Time Series Models in Defense Industries.

Abstract

This thesis examines the forecasting ability of financial ratio time series models as applied to defense industry firms. Using previously developed descriptive models of financial ratio time series behavior, this thesis identifies plausible financial ratio forecasting models. The ability of seven different models to predict future values of financial ratios is then tested with data from defense industry firms. The results are used to answer questions concerning the accuracy and bias of forecasts and the appropriate applications of specific forecasting models. The thesis concludes that the ability of time series models to forecast future values for financial ratios depends on the specific ratio being forecast, and that the simplest model, a random walk model, is among the most useful for forecasting. (AN)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1994
Accession Number
ADA293744

Entities

People

  • James D. Jenkins Iv

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accounting
  • Accuracy
  • Budgets
  • Business Administration
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Databases
  • Defense Industry
  • Delphi Method
  • Department Of Defense
  • Financial Management
  • Literature Surveys
  • Money
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Procurement
  • Random Walk
  • Standards

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Economics