Forecasting Jet Fuel Prices Using Artificial Neural Networks.
Abstract
Artificial neural networks provide a new approach to commodity forecasting that does not require algorithm or rule development. Neural networks have been deemed successful in applications involving optimization, classification, identification, pattern recognition and time series forecasting. With the advent of user friendly, commercially available software packages that work in a spreadsheet environment, such as Neural Works Predict by NeuralWare, more people can take advantage of the power of artificial neural networks. This thesis provides an introduction to neural networks, and reviews two recent studies of forecasting commodities prices. This study also develops a neural network model using Neural Works Predict that forecasts jet fuel prices for the Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC). In addition, the results developed are compared to the output of an econometric regression model, specifically, the Department of Energy's Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STWS) model. The Predict artificial neural network model produced more accurate results and reduced the contribution of outliers more effectively than the STIFS model, thus producing a more robust model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1995
- Accession Number
- ADA294227
Entities
People
- Mary A. Kasprzak
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School