Forecasting Overhaul or Replacement Intervals Based on Estimated System Failure Intensity.

Abstract

System reliability can be expressed in terms of the pattern of failure events over time. Assuming a nonhomogeneous Poisson process, and Weibull intensity function for complex repairable system failures, the degree of system deterioration can be approximated. Maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the system Rate of Occurrence of Failure (ROCOF) function are presented. Evaluating the integral of the ROCOF over annual usage intervals yields the expected number of annual system failures. By associating a cost of failure with the expected number of failures, budget and program policy decisions can be made based on expected future maintenance costs. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the range and the distribution of the net present value and intemal rate of return of alternative cash flows based on the distributions of the cost inputs and confidence intervals of the MLEs. (AN)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1994
Accession Number
ADA294515

Entities

People

  • James M. Gannon

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • C4I
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Cost Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Estimators
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Logistics
  • Maintenance
  • Maintenance Costs
  • Maintenance Management
  • Reliability
  • Repair Shops
  • Spreadsheet Software
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Statistical inference.