Performance of the Navy's Second Order Closure Version of the NORAPS In Short-Range Refractivity Forecasting During the VOCAR Experiment.

Abstract

In conjunction with the Variability of Coastal Atmospheric Refractivity (VOCAR) experiment conducted during late summer 1993 in the Southern California bight region, twice-daily 24 hr forecasts from a second order closure version of the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) were made. The results from a validation of the model's performance in short-range refractivity forecasting during VOCAR are presented, based on statistical comparisons of model and radiosonde surface and elevated duct occurrence, and trapping layer heights and intensities. Spatial and temporal (diurnal and synoptic) variability of both forecast and observed ducting are discussed. The impact on refractive structure of data assimilation with an incremental update procedure is also examined.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA294649

Entities

People

  • Gerard N. Vogel

Organizations

  • United States Naval Research Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Assimilation
  • Boundary Layer
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • False Alarms
  • Grids
  • Intensity
  • Layers
  • Military Research
  • Physics
  • Radiosondes
  • Sea Level
  • Statistics
  • Surface Temperature
  • Validation
  • Weather Forecasting

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Coastal Oceanography
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Wave Propagation and Nonlinear Chaotic Dynamics.