Pharmaceutical Inventory Forecasting at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center.
Abstract
This research was conducted to determine the accuracy of statistical forecasting techniques forecasting the inventory of pharmaceutical items. Because pharmaceutical items are subject to a degree of seasonality of demand, the Director of Medical Logistics at the Wright-patterson Medical Center believed that the use of such techniques may provide a more accurate forecast for the items stocked by the Outpatient Pharmacy. In addition to the technique used by the Outpatient Pharmacy (the 12 month simple moving average) three statistical forecasting methods were employed: the 6 month simple moving average, simple exponential smoothing, and the Winter's exponential smoothing. These techniques were used to obtain forecasts, and the results were analyzed for measurement error. The Winter's exponential smoothing method prove superior in nearly all cases, and offers the best potential for use. jg p.13
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1995
- Accession Number
- ADA300974
Entities
People
- Patrick J. Reymann
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology