Effects of Early Decisions on Later Judgments in an Evolving Situation.

Abstract

Army intelligence analysts were given a realistic battlefield scenario and asked to make preliminary decisions about most likely enemy avenue of approach, and their confidence level. Subsequently, they were asked to reconsider their decisions in the light of updated intelligence reports containing some items which confirmed and some which contradicted their early decisions. Three such updating judgments were requested. Finally, they were asked to rate each information item in terms of the degree to which it supported or contradicted their hypothesis.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA301079

Entities

People

  • F. F. Marvin
  • Martin A. Tolcott
  • Paul E. Lehner

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analysts
  • Army Intelligence
  • Battlefields
  • Intelligence Analysts
  • Judgment

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Munitions and Ordnance Engineering
  • Organizational Psychology.
  • Systems Analysis and Design