Model Development for Forecasting Traffic Management Office Shipping and Budget Requirements.

Abstract

This research represents an attempt to develop a quantitative tool that could be used to forecast Traffic Management Office (IMO) budget requirements for freight movements at base level within Air Combat Command. Regression analysis, using aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels as independent variables to predict shipping costs, was used in this research project. Each of the independent variables was aggregated and disaggregated at various levels in an attempt to develop a simple but accurate model. The results seem to suggest that aircraft flying hours, aircraft sorties, and wing manpower levels are not accurate predictors of TMO freight shipping requirements. Of the three independent variables, the most useful was for forecasting IMU freight shipping requirements was the manpower variable, not aircraft flying hours or aircraft sorties as expected. because of these results, the author recommends the continued use of the current naive forecasting method until a better model is developed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA301335

Entities

People

  • Luke E. Closson Iii

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Air Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Air Force Facilities
  • Aircrafts
  • Computer Programs
  • Data Analysis
  • Data Science
  • Department Of Defense
  • Information Science
  • Manpower
  • Neural Networks
  • Personnel Management
  • Regression Analysis
  • Shipping
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Surface Transportation
  • Transportation
  • Vehicles

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Maritime Security/Maritime Homeland Security