World Defense Track Prospects.

Abstract

The Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Production Resources (DASD(PR) requested that the Logistics Management Institute (LME) project world defense trade from 1994 through the year 2000. DASD(PR) provided LMI with a data base on arms trade and potential economic and financial explanatory variables for 138 countries over the 1981-1991 period. The authors applied pooled cross-section and time series econometric techniques to test various international trade models. Arms trade is explained very well by contemporaneous and lagged military expenditures and the presence or absence of a cold war environment. Utilizing that model, various military activity scenarios are specified to provide a range of arms trade projections for the Middle East, East Asia, and the rest of the world. The implications for the U.S. defense industrial base are also discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1994
Accession Number
ADA301852

Entities

People

  • Earl R. Wingrove Iii
  • Lawrence Schwartz

Organizations

  • LMI

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arms Control
  • Asia
  • Coefficients
  • Cold War
  • Commerce
  • Contrast
  • Databases
  • Environment
  • International Trade
  • Logistics
  • Logistics Management
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Security
  • South Asia
  • United States

Readers

  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Economics
  • Regression Analysis.