A Technique for Estimating the Conditional Probability of Detecting a Non-Gaming Drug User.

Abstract

In order to estimate the effectiveness of random urinalysis drug testing strategies, it is necessary to estimate the conditional probability of detecting drug users; that is, the probability that the user will test positive if selected for drug testing. This report presents a series of methodologies for estimating the conditional probability of detecting non-gaming drug users under a wide variety of drug usage and wear-off scenarios. The most general scenario assumes that the probability of detection depend upon the pattern of drug use prior to testing. For non-gaming users, it was observed that the probability of detection and the expected number of months until detection are proportional to the command monthly test rate.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA302852

Entities

People

  • Jules I. Borack

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Detection
  • Drug Abuse
  • Drug Users
  • Enlisted Personnel
  • Equations
  • Kinetics
  • Markov Models
  • Models
  • Naval Operations
  • Naval Personnel
  • Navy
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Urinalysis

Readers

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