Demand Forecasting.

Abstract

Although the United States Air Force, and other Military Services, forecast failures for many aircraft components on the basis of flying hours, it has long been recognized that the situation is not that simple. New war plans adopted by the Air Force in 1993 and reflecting Desert Storm experience and a regional contingency orientation made it crucial to improve forecasting methods. We examined data for over 200,000 sorties and show that failures for longer sorties are not strictly proportional to flying hours, and quantify the errors caused by assuring that they are. We demonstrate a method for correcting for this error and apply this correction to a number of fighter deployment spares packages. We compute the new costs and test the robustness of the new packages under various scenarios

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Aug 01, 1995
Accession Number
ADA304813

Entities

People

  • F. M. Slay

Organizations

  • LMI

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Aircraft Equipment
  • Classification
  • Collaborative Techniques
  • Delphi Method
  • Deployment
  • Information Operations
  • Logistics
  • Logistics Management
  • Management Engineering
  • Military Forces (United States)
  • Military Organizations
  • Security
  • Standards
  • Supply Chain Management
  • United States

Readers

  • Aerospace Engineering
  • Inertial Navigation Systems.
  • Systems Analysis and Design