Ground Forces Battle Casualty Rate Patterns: Uses in Casualty Estimation and Simulation Evaluation.
Abstract
This paper summarizes and elaborates on a 4-year study of modem conventional ground operations (originally reported in 3 volumes: LMl FP703TRl/-TR2/-TR3, available separately in DTlC). The research reveals patterns of personnel battle casualty rates strongly associated with patterns of Operations. This paper also discusses 0peration Desert Storm rate outcomes in light of the studys prior insights into rate patterns. The research combines insights from military theory, history, and operations research to investigate a new and large body of empirical data (from WWII, Korea, Middle East, and National Training Center - much of it included in LMI-FP7O3TRl) on battle casualty rate behavior in modem operations. Findings include detailed and general rate characteristics associated qualitatively and quantitatively with major forms of operations. Qualitative indicators include critical operational parameters for rate assessment, and fundamental operational scenario characteristics. Quantitative indicators include probable ranges of average (mean) rates for army and corps-size forces for varying time periods and scenarios, distributions (max, 75, median, 25, min) of l-day rates given those averages (for S- and l0-day periods), measures of rate variability, rate frequencies, varying proportions of wounded casualties out of total, etc. Findings suggest that current U.S. and Allied casualty estimation methodologies and contemporary simulations fail to represent significant empirically-indicated rate patterns, and further suggest the character and degree of the misrepresentation. Improved approaches are described both to casualty estimation (to evaluate estimates made by whatever method or to construct estimates) and to help validate simulation output of personnel casualties.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 30, 1992
- Accession Number
- ADA304904
Entities
People
- George W. Kuhn
Organizations
- LMI