Ground Forces Battle Casualty Rate Patterns: Current Rate Projections Compared to the Empirical Evidence.
Abstract
A 4-year study of modem conventional ground operations (reported in 3 volumes: LMI FP703TR1/-TR2/-TR3) reveals patterns of personnel battle casualty rates strongly associated with patterns of operations. This second volume extends the first volume's discussion of empirical evidence (especially on differences between continuous and disrupted front rates), spends considerable time comparing simulation Output to patterns noted in empirical evidence, and discusses the origins and character of various U.S. and Allied estimation methodologies. Overall, the research combines insights from military theory, history, and operations research to investigate a new and large body of empirical data (from WWll, Korea, Middle East, and National Training Center - much of it included in the first volume) on battle casualty rate behavior in modem conventional operations. Findings include detailed and general rate characteristics associated qualitatively and quantitatively with major forms of operations. Qualitative indicators include critical operational parameters for rate assessment, and fundamental operational scenario characteristics. Quantitative indicators include probable ranges of average (mean) rates for army and corps-size forces for varying time periods and scenarios, distributions (max, 75, median, 25, min) of 1-day rates given those averages (for 5-and 10-day periods), measures of rate variability, rate frequencies, varying proportions of wounded casualties out of total, etc. Findings suggest that current U.S. and Allied casualty estimation methodologies and contemporary simulations fail to represent significant empirically-indicated rate patterns, and further suggest the character and degree of the misrepresentation.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1990
- Accession Number
- ADA304908
Entities
People
- George W. Kuhn
Organizations
- LMI