Forecasting Future Accessions and Losses from the Delayed Entry Program.
Abstract
This research project attempted to forecast monthly accessions and losses from the Army's Delayed Entry Program (DEP) using information about the current length of stay of an individual in the DEP. This required the estimation of the conditional probabilities of an individual becoming an accession/loss from the DEP given his/her current length of stay using historical records. The accuracy of the procedure was tested by forecasting 'future' numbers of accessions/losses for several months for which the actual numbers of accessions/losses were available. This entire procedure was carried out separately for each of 22 mission box categories which the U.S. Army Recruiting Command uses to classify entrant to the DEP by gender, education, mental category, and prior service. Results of this forecasting effort were quite good when looking at an entire year, but the monthly forecasting results were off probably due to the fact that the DEP population display: seasonal behavior with respect to accession/loss from the DEP.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1996
- Accession Number
- ADA307272
Entities
People
- Lyn R. Whitaker
- Paul R. Milch
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School