Development and Results of a Northern Sea Route Transit Model,

Abstract

For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the model, probability distributions for various ice, ocean and atmospheric inputs are exercised by a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate combinations of conditions that affect ship speed. The speed, dependent on the established environment during each time and distance segment, is read from empirically derived lookup tables. Daily ship rates and Russian passage fees were applied to calculate the relative total costs for moving the various cargoes over the route. The model's development, limiting assumptions, simulation logic, data inputs, and resulting output are discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1996
Accession Number
ADA311979

Entities

People

  • Duane T. Eppler
  • L. D. Farmer
  • Nathan D. Mulherin
  • Orson P. Smith
  • Tatiana O. Proshutinsky

Organizations

  • Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Algorithms
  • Boats
  • Business Administration
  • Cargo Ships
  • Commerce
  • Computer Programming
  • Computers
  • Engineers
  • International Trade
  • Marine Transportation
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Navigation
  • Ocean Currents
  • Oceanography
  • Probability Distributions
  • Ridges
  • Sea Water

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Maritime Security/Maritime Homeland Security
  • Polar and Arctic Studies